More on D&D

a. Have Denial and Deception become obsolete in the face of modern intelligence gathering methods? No in fact I believe Denial and Deception efforts have become more important than ever now that the face of warfare has turned more towards guerilla/counterinsurgency type warfare vs traditional conventional tactics. This ups the ante and skill level required to successfully execute D&D efforts, in my opinion 

b. Are new intelligence gathering capabilities still being defeated by adaptations of classic Denial and Deception methods? In some cases, yes. One situation that comes to mind quickly is the Taliban/AQ forces. They are a vastly more primitive force, technologically speaking, but employ many ways of passing information and disseminating false intelligence aka showing the false and hiding the real. While in most cases they are defeated, they have obviously done a very good job of hiding UBL from us. This of course would be achieved through Denial and Deception tactics. 

c. Have we witnessed the appearance of new Denial and Deception techniques? Yes, and one field this is particularly true in is Information/Cyber Warfare. Viruses, false data banks, etc are being developed and upgraded on a constant basis. 

d. Do new techniques actually represent adaptations of old techniques, and do they still succeed. Yes, on a general level I believe so. The concepts of D&D remain the same regardless of time period. Thus, it could be argued that almost any new technique is actually a representation of an older technique. 

e. How can Denial and Deception efforts still succeed with so much known about them? Denial and Deception will always be a powerful ally for those who know how to use them. The human condition remains the same over time and therefore the same traits that cause people to fall for D&D tactics in the past will cause them to fall for them in the future. 

f. What areas besides military conflict do we see Denial and Deception being employed in? One area Denial and deception has become prevalent in is in the corporate world. The field of Competitive Intelligence has become relatively large and is growing at a very high rate. Companies have trade secrets and confidential information to protect and often employ methods to protect said data. 

Why do Denial and Deception continue to succeed despite all that is known about them?

An excerpt from an interesting academic discussion I was a part of regarding the applicability of denial and deception in modern warfare/strategic situations:

“I make the enemy see my strengths as weaknesses and my weaknesses as strengths while I cause his strengths to become weaknesses and discover where he is not strong…I conceal my tracks so that none can discern them; I keep silence so that none can hear me.” Sun Tzu, The Art of War 

In my opinion, denial and deception continue to succeed despite all that is known about them due to the simple fact that, by definition, they are a way of altering perceived reality. Since reality is a constant and is dynamic, it is always subject to being manipulated for those involved. There are essentially infinite possibilities to alter reality because each moment and situation is unique. 

It is similar to playing poker, in that denial and deception is expected, but virtually impossible to discern from the truth. In any strategic situation one side can expect denial and deception from the other, however, discerning the truth from the false reality is extremely difficult. Effective denial and deception could consist of an extremely minor alteration of reality or a total fabrication. These two tactics serve to keep an opposing force off balance and constantly guessing. 

One of the main benefits of utilizing denial and deception is that it prevents or greatly increases the difficulty of proper risk calculation and management of the opposing force. Similar to how in poker, one can utilize their betting pattern to manipulate an opponent’s risk management by dictating pot odds/pot equity. Even if the opponent suspects bluffing, sometimes it is simply not worth it to call. This same principle can be utilized in any strategic situation. 

Denial and deception will exist and be expected as long as reality itself exists. Therefore, even though the concepts are well known, they will continue to be effective.

COPYRIGHT 2010- NATHAN S. MARLAR