At first it may seem like a strange idea for the government to hire private organizations for their intelligence needs. However, this is a new industry and has been growing exponentially in the past decade or so. In reading the book “Spies for Hire” by Tim Shorrock, as well as this week’s reading assignment by Stephen Mercado I gained a lot of insight into the process. I’m still left with a tough call as to which one I agree with, however let’s take a look at the pros and cons.
On the traditional DOD OSINT side, you have actual military personnel working under direct DOD supervision. The cost of man hours is significantly less expensive on a direct basis. On the negative side the lower cost in man hours also means the personnel are getting paid less and are apt to seek employment elsewhere once their EAOS date arrives. OSINT collection tends to have a lower budget as well when compared to other disciplines. Also in any government undertaking, you will have red tape and bureaucracy.
On the Private OSINT side, you have well paid personnel, most of whom are prior DOD/military Intelligence operators. Thus, in theory you are drawing from the same field of personnel as DOD. The fact that the personnel tend to be paid significantly higher than DOD employees leads to more potential for retention and efficiency. Private industry tends to be more efficient than government counterparts, thus eliminating the bureaucracy and red tape, for the most part. On the negative side, private company is just that, private. They will have their own agenda and may even answer to shareholders. This can lead to significant conflicts of interests at times. Private OSINT tends to be much more expensive than DOD. Also in private industry you have the loyalty issue. Theoretically a company can work for anyone it desires, provided its legal team is strong enough. This can lead to extremely precarious situations.
Works Cited:
1. Tim Shorrock. Spies for Hire: The Secret World of Intelligence Outsourcing.
2. Stephen C. Mercado. Reexamining the Distinction Between Open Information and Secrets. CSI Studies. Vol. 49, No. 2.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Information vs Intelligence and the place therein of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
What is the difference between information and intelligence? Where does OSINT fit in?
Information is simply raw data in any form, whether a newspaper article, a website, photographs, phone records etc. The unprocessed data gleaned from any source on its own is simply information.
Information becomes intelligence when it is actually processed and pieced together to form a bigger picture. The information itself is put together in a fashion that allows it to be analyzed with a a specific outcome in mind. The various pieces of raw data are put together to allow a purposeful investigation or mission to be planned from the information that wouldn't have been possible based on the separate pieces of the "puzzle" alone.
OSINT fits into the equation in the sense that all OSINT data is initially information, and the vast majority of the population consider it simply to be only information. However, an analyst can take the vast amount of material available via open sources and put it all together to form actual actionable intelligence. To me OSINT is the perfect example of how information becomes intel. Most individuals tend to think of intelligence as highly classified information gleaned via covert methods such as those portrayed by movies and books, however proper OSINT collection and analysis is a prime example of how seemingly innocuous information can be used to form highly actionable intelligence.
Information is simply raw data in any form, whether a newspaper article, a website, photographs, phone records etc. The unprocessed data gleaned from any source on its own is simply information.
Information becomes intelligence when it is actually processed and pieced together to form a bigger picture. The information itself is put together in a fashion that allows it to be analyzed with a a specific outcome in mind. The various pieces of raw data are put together to allow a purposeful investigation or mission to be planned from the information that wouldn't have been possible based on the separate pieces of the "puzzle" alone.
OSINT fits into the equation in the sense that all OSINT data is initially information, and the vast majority of the population consider it simply to be only information. However, an analyst can take the vast amount of material available via open sources and put it all together to form actual actionable intelligence. To me OSINT is the perfect example of how information becomes intel. Most individuals tend to think of intelligence as highly classified information gleaned via covert methods such as those portrayed by movies and books, however proper OSINT collection and analysis is a prime example of how seemingly innocuous information can be used to form highly actionable intelligence.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
More on D&D
a. Have Denial and Deception become obsolete in the face of modern intelligence gathering methods? No in fact I believe Denial and Deception efforts have become more important than ever now that the face of warfare has turned more towards guerilla/counterinsurgency type warfare vs traditional conventional tactics. This ups the ante and skill level required to successfully execute D&D efforts, in my opinion
b. Are new intelligence gathering capabilities still being defeated by adaptations of classic Denial and Deception methods? In some cases, yes. One situation that comes to mind quickly is the Taliban/AQ forces. They are a vastly more primitive force, technologically speaking, but employ many ways of passing information and disseminating false intelligence aka showing the false and hiding the real. While in most cases they are defeated, they have obviously done a very good job of hiding UBL from us. This of course would be achieved through Denial and Deception tactics.
c. Have we witnessed the appearance of new Denial and Deception techniques? Yes, and one field this is particularly true in is Information/Cyber Warfare. Viruses, false data banks, etc are being developed and upgraded on a constant basis.
d. Do new techniques actually represent adaptations of old techniques, and do they still succeed. Yes, on a general level I believe so. The concepts of D&D remain the same regardless of time period. Thus, it could be argued that almost any new technique is actually a representation of an older technique.
e. How can Denial and Deception efforts still succeed with so much known about them? Denial and Deception will always be a powerful ally for those who know how to use them. The human condition remains the same over time and therefore the same traits that cause people to fall for D&D tactics in the past will cause them to fall for them in the future.
f. What areas besides military conflict do we see Denial and Deception being employed in? One area Denial and deception has become prevalent in is in the corporate world. The field of Competitive Intelligence has become relatively large and is growing at a very high rate. Companies have trade secrets and confidential information to protect and often employ methods to protect said data.
b. Are new intelligence gathering capabilities still being defeated by adaptations of classic Denial and Deception methods? In some cases, yes. One situation that comes to mind quickly is the Taliban/AQ forces. They are a vastly more primitive force, technologically speaking, but employ many ways of passing information and disseminating false intelligence aka showing the false and hiding the real. While in most cases they are defeated, they have obviously done a very good job of hiding UBL from us. This of course would be achieved through Denial and Deception tactics.
c. Have we witnessed the appearance of new Denial and Deception techniques? Yes, and one field this is particularly true in is Information/Cyber Warfare. Viruses, false data banks, etc are being developed and upgraded on a constant basis.
d. Do new techniques actually represent adaptations of old techniques, and do they still succeed. Yes, on a general level I believe so. The concepts of D&D remain the same regardless of time period. Thus, it could be argued that almost any new technique is actually a representation of an older technique.
e. How can Denial and Deception efforts still succeed with so much known about them? Denial and Deception will always be a powerful ally for those who know how to use them. The human condition remains the same over time and therefore the same traits that cause people to fall for D&D tactics in the past will cause them to fall for them in the future.
f. What areas besides military conflict do we see Denial and Deception being employed in? One area Denial and deception has become prevalent in is in the corporate world. The field of Competitive Intelligence has become relatively large and is growing at a very high rate. Companies have trade secrets and confidential information to protect and often employ methods to protect said data.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Why do Denial and Deception continue to succeed despite all that is known about them?
An excerpt from an interesting academic discussion I was a part of regarding the applicability of denial and deception in modern warfare/strategic situations:
“I make the enemy see my strengths as weaknesses and my weaknesses as strengths while I cause his strengths to become weaknesses and discover where he is not strong…I conceal my tracks so that none can discern them; I keep silence so that none can hear me.” Sun Tzu, The Art of War
In my opinion, denial and deception continue to succeed despite all that is known about them due to the simple fact that, by definition, they are a way of altering perceived reality. Since reality is a constant and is dynamic, it is always subject to being manipulated for those involved. There are essentially infinite possibilities to alter reality because each moment and situation is unique.
It is similar to playing poker, in that denial and deception is expected, but virtually impossible to discern from the truth. In any strategic situation one side can expect denial and deception from the other, however, discerning the truth from the false reality is extremely difficult. Effective denial and deception could consist of an extremely minor alteration of reality or a total fabrication. These two tactics serve to keep an opposing force off balance and constantly guessing.
One of the main benefits of utilizing denial and deception is that it prevents or greatly increases the difficulty of proper risk calculation and management of the opposing force. Similar to how in poker, one can utilize their betting pattern to manipulate an opponent’s risk management by dictating pot odds/pot equity. Even if the opponent suspects bluffing, sometimes it is simply not worth it to call. This same principle can be utilized in any strategic situation.
Denial and deception will exist and be expected as long as reality itself exists. Therefore, even though the concepts are well known, they will continue to be effective.
COPYRIGHT 2010- NATHAN S. MARLAR
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Explaining Competitive Intelligence
I came across this on the CI2020 Competitive Intelligence website and wanted to share it. An interesting and entertaining video giving some insight into the relatively obscure and unknown world of CI. Enjoy!
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